Bitcoin has completed a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern with a confirmed breakout and retest, according to analyst Vivek Sen, who set a minimum target of $220,000. The call comes as the cryptocurrency trades in a choppy range after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, briefly touching $64,500 three times before settling in the high $63,000 zone.
The cup-and-handle case
Sen, who has 270,000 followers on X, posted on Thursday that the pattern is now fully formed. Previous cup-and-handle setups in Bitcoin led to major rallies: the 2020-2021 cycle saw a breakout to $69,000, and a similar pattern in 2024 preceded a rise to over $100,000. Sen's analysis suggests a repeat could push Bitcoin to $220,000 or higher.
Risk metrics and divergence
Swissblock reported that Bitcoin’s Risk Index peaked in late June and has since transitioned into low risk, allowing selling pressure to ease and price to stabilize. A divergence is forming: Bitcoin risk remains subdued while the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) has returned to the fear zone. That gap could signal a shift in market dynamics.
Another analyst, higher target
Not everyone is stopping at $220,000. A separate analyst set a more bullish target of up to $450,000 per BTC by March 2028, though the basis for that call was not detailed in the available facts.
Near-term volatility risks
Volatility could increase as the US resumed military strikes on Iran late Wednesday. The Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged added to the choppy price action, with Bitcoin failing to hold above $64,500. The combination of geopolitical tension and a steady rate environment leaves traders watching for the next catalyst.
For now, the cup-and-handle pattern is the dominant technical narrative. Whether it plays out as Sen predicts will depend on whether Bitcoin can break decisively above recent resistance and sustain momentum in a volatile macro backdrop.
