A confluence of on-chain metrics suggested Bitcoin was forming a cycle low in February 2025, according to data from that period. Realized cap had stabilized, RHODL readings were historically elevated, and funding rates had turned deeply negative. The combination of these signals has historically lined up with price bottoms — though the market has moved on since then.
Realized cap stabilized
Realized cap — a measure that values each coin at the price it last moved — stopped declining sharply in early February 2025. That stabilization often indicates that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss, a typical feature of cycle bottoms. The metric didn't bounce immediately, but it flattened out for several weeks.
RHODL hit historic levels
The RHODL ratio, which compares the market cap of coins aged 1 week-3 months to those aged 3-6 months, climbed well above its historical range. Elevated RHODL readings tend to coincide with moments when new buyers are absorbing supply from older hands — a pattern seen during previous macro lows. The February 2025 reading was one of the highest in the current cycle.
Funding rates went deeply negative
Perpetual swap funding rates across major exchanges dropped into deeply negative territory in late January and early February 2025. Negative funding means short positions are paying longs to keep their positions open, a sign of extreme bearish sentiment. In past cycles, such negativity has preceded price reversals within weeks.
All three signals aligning doesn't guarantee a bottom, but it's a rare convergence. Traders watching those indicators in February had reason to pay attention.
