Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to 0.12 in the second quarter, down from 0.58 in the final three months of 2025, according to a joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode. The decoupling from equities came as Bitcoin's correlation with gold rose to 0.57 and with silver to 0.63. The shift toward safe-haven metals arrives just as the Federal Reserve convenes July 28-29 and the four largest US hyperscalers — Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet — report earnings over the same week.
On-chain signals point to accumulation
The report's authors describe a market moving from correction into accumulation. Coins transacted within three months are at multi-year lows, while dormant supply is climbing. That pattern, paired with the sliding equity correlation, suggests holders are sitting on their positions rather than chasing risk-on flows. Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 trading in a range that frustrates both bulls and bears, but the on-chain data leans toward a buildup rather than a blow-off.
Fed faces sticky inflation, energy pressure
The Fed's July Monetary Policy Report showed PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% over the twelve months through May. The funds rate has sat at 3.50%-3.75% since January. New York Fed President John Williams tied elevated inflation to tariffs, Middle East-driven energy and commodity costs, and demand for goods and electricity from technology investment. June's Summary of Economic Projections already raised the 2026 median PCE forecast to 3.6% and the year-end funds-rate median to 3.8% — up from 3.4% in March.
The timing isn't great for a Bitcoin rally. If the Fed signals another hold or a hawkish lean, the macro headwind could pull crypto lower. But the decoupling data suggests Bitcoin may react differently than it did in 2025.
Oil prices split the bull and bear case for Bitcoin
The report outlines two scenarios. In the bull case, a selloff in AI stocks driven by valuation concerns would push bond yields down and strengthen metals, which would lift Bitcoin. In the bear case, an AI selloff triggered by inflation and rising energy costs would drive yields higher, dragging Bitcoin down along with metals. Oil prices are the key factor determining which path plays out. The US Energy Information Administration's July base case sees Brent crude averaging $74 a barrel in the third quarter.
Alphabet this week raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $195-205 billion from $180-190 billion and reported its first negative free-cash-flow quarter — minus $5.9 billion. The four largest US hyperscalers are on pace to spend more on capex than free cash flow by 2027 if current trends hold. Big Tech is set to pump over $700 billion into AI infrastructure this year, and Morgan Stanley projects that figure will top $1 trillion in 2027. Microsoft and Meta report earnings July 29; Amazon follows July 30.
Those numbers matter for Bitcoin because the AI capex cycle is the same force competing for capital and driving electricity demand. How the market reads the earnings — as a sign of overinvestment or a necessary bet — will ripple into yields, metals, and eventually crypto.
