Bloomberg Intelligence is ringing the alarm after Bitcoin's price path broke away from the S&P 500 in late May. The research unit calls the decoupling a major sell signal, warning the cryptocurrency could fall to $10,000 — an 86% drop from current levels.
The late-May break
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have largely moved in tandem for much of the past year, tracking macro sentiment and interest-rate expectations. But around the last week of May, that relationship fractured. While equities held relatively steady, Bitcoin slid — a divergence that Bloomberg Intelligence analysts now flag as bearish.
They aren't mincing words. The decoupling, in their view, is a red flag that historically has preceded sharp downside moves for the leading digital asset. The call lands at a moment when crypto markets are already on edge.
What the projection means
A drop to $10,000 would not just be a routine correction. It would wipe out more than four-fifths of Bitcoin's current market value — a crash comparable to the deepest drawdowns in the asset's history. For context, that would be a lower price than where Bitcoin traded for most of 2020 and early 2021.
Bloomberg Intelligence's forecast is not a market call from a trading desk, but a formal research note. That gives it weight among institutional investors who rely on the firm's analysis for portfolio allocation decisions.
No clear trigger
The analysts don't point to a single catalyst for the potential sell-off. Rather, they see the decoupling itself as the warning — evidence that Bitcoin's internal momentum has weakened even as broader markets stay calm. Whether that weakness is a blip or the start of a longer slide is the open question.
For now, the late-May divergence is the data point everyone's watching. Bloomberg Intelligence put a number on the worst case. The market will have to decide whether to prove them wrong.
