Bitcoin has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high of $126,000, hitting a cycle low of $57,700 on July 1. This week it's recovered to around $65,000, but analysts are split on whether the worst is over. The drawdown has now lasted more than 268 days, and two prominent forecasts suggest the real bottom could come later this year.
The numbers behind the drawdown
The current decline is steep but not unprecedented. Previous major drawdowns in 2014 and 2018 lasted 363 and 376 days respectively, with peak-to-trough losses of 84.3% and 77.6%. NYDIG presented a scenario — not a base-case forecast — that a repeat of those cycle durations with a shallower 70% decline would point to a potential low in the $38,000-$39,000 range around early October 2026. That's roughly 40% below where Bitcoin trades today.
Where analysts see the bottom
Analyst Doctor Profit predicted Bitcoin's final low between $40,000 and $48,000, also around September or October 2026. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said the surge in optimism on social media after Bitcoin's recovery indicates the market has not yet reached its ultimate bottom. In other words, the recent bounce might be a bear market rally, not the start of a new uptrend.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez urged investors not to obsess over the exact bottom. He noted that periods when Bitcoin traded near its 200-week moving average have historically been strong long-term buying opportunities. Martinez also pointed out that as Bitcoin matures, investors need more capital to achieve the same gains from holding the asset — but the current price remains attractive for long-term accumulation.
What comes next
Both NYDIG's scenario and Doctor Profit's forecast converge on early October 2026 as a potential turning point. Whether that timeline holds depends on whether the broader macro environment cooperates and whether the market's optimism fades again. For now, Bitcoin is up 3% on the week, but the debate over the true bottom is far from settled.
