Bitcoin finally broke its record 142-day run of lagging the S&P 500, closing the longest underperformance stretch in history with a mid-May 2026 rally that pushed the price to $78,272. That represents an 11.8% month-on-month gain from a reference point of $75,650, and has traders watching whether the move can hold above a crowded cluster of moving averages near $76,800–$76,900.
The longest slump ends
The 142-day streak — from early January through mid-May — was the worst relative showing for Bitcoin against equities since the asset existed. For nearly five months, every bounce in BTC got sold harder than the one before, while the S&P 500 chugged higher. The reversal came without a single headline catalyst; instead, it was cumulative ETF flows that finally tipped the balance. Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows have now exceeded $65 billion, a figure that points to structural demand rather than speculative froth. That bid under the market is what traders credit for the snap-back.
Where the charts get tricky
Price is now testing the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, which are bunched together in that $76,800–$76,900 zone. Holding above that level matters because a break below could reopen the $72,000 floor that has held since late April. On the upside, $81,500 looms as the 200-day EMA — a level that has capped rallies in prior cycles and will be the next real test. The RSI sits at 42.15 with a signal line at 46.95, a negative momentum divergence that suggests buying pressure isn't as strong as the price move implies. The $72,000–$80,000 range has been the market's home for the past month, and nothing in the technicals argues for a clean breakout yet.
Miners feel the squeeze
While ETF buyers have been adding exposure, the actual production side of Bitcoin is under the deepest sustained drawdown on record. Hashrate sits 13.2% below the November 2025 peak, a decline that has persisted longer than any previous miner capitulation. That's a warning light for the network's health — when miners shut off rigs, it usually means margins are too thin for the current price. The question is whether the ETF-driven demand can absorb that selling pressure if exhausted miners start dumping reserves. So far the answer has been yes, but the divergence between bullish paper demand and bearish on-chain reality is growing.
The next concrete event to watch is whether price can close a weekly candle above $78,500, something it hasn't managed since early April. If it can't, the 142-day streak may have ended, but the grind lower might not be over.
