Bitcoin spent a third consecutive day trying to push past the 200-day simple moving average near $82,500 on Wednesday, but the move has so far fizzled. Market analyst Ali Martinez flagged that level as a critical resistance barrier, warning that a failure to break through could send prices back toward the 50-day SMA around $75,000. With miners offloading more than 3,400 BTC they had held since the $72,000 range, the added supply is making the climb even steeper.
What the charts are saying
Martinez noted that a clean breakout above $82,500 could trigger a rally toward $94,000. But the opposite scenario — a rejection — puts the 50-day SMA at roughly $75,000 in play. That level also sits near a cluster of long-position liquidation walls at $75,000, $73,000 and $70,000, according to exchange data. The market is struggling for the follow-through volume needed to sustain a breakout, and the miner selling isn't helping.
Leverage is back — and it's lopsided
Retail and futures traders are piling back into risk. The Estimated Leverage Ratio hit a yearly peak this week, and most of that leverage is skewed long. That creates a fragile setup: if Bitcoin does roll over, a cascade of liquidations could amplify the drop. The walls at $75,000 and below suggest a lot of traders are betting on a bounce there, but those same orders would get eaten fast if the price sweeps through them.
Rekt Capital warns of a deeper breakdown
Analyst Rekt Capital has a bleaker read. He argues Bitcoin already broke down from its macro triangle base around $82,500 and is now retesting the 50-month EMA as support. History, he says, suggests a brief bounce here followed by a loss of that support and a move toward the bear market bottom. The 50-month EMA aligns with the 2021 all-time high — a level that flipped from resistance to support during the 2024 rally but may now be vulnerable. If Bitcoin rejects from the confluent zone of the macro downtrend and the triangle base, the current bounce will be weaker than the one seen in 2024.
All eyes are on $82,500. If Bitcoin can't close above it in the next day or two, the odds of a retest of $75,000 — and potentially the liquidation cascade below it — go up sharply. The miner selling and elevated leverage aren't giving traders much room for error.
