Bitcoin closed July 12 at $63,742, flat month-over-month and 33% off its six-month high. The price is also 14% below its 200-day moving average near $74,000. VanEck characterizes the current market as consolidation rather than a bottom — but the firm says two key markers of a true bottom haven't arrived yet.
Derivatives Signal Caution
The options market is pricing in fear. The put/call implied volatility skew widened to +11.4 percentage points, sitting in the 83rd percentile since 2021. The put/call premium ratio climbed to 1.49, well above the average of 0.71. Total options premium fell 23% to $613.6 million. Perpetual-futures funding rates are near +4.5% on a 30-day average, about half the long-run average of +8.4%. That suggests positioning is far from bullish.
VanEck flags two markers of a true bottom that have not arrived: skew past +15 points or funding turning negative. Until those show up, the firm isn't calling a capitulation event.
Long-Term Holders Stay Put
The share of Bitcoin held longer than one year reached 60.8% of supply, up from 59.1% six months earlier. That's a sign of conviction. But only 53% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, compared to a four-year average of 76%. So a lot of holders are underwater on paper, yet they're not selling.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs saw outflows of 40,010 BTC — worth about $2.40 billion — in the month. Corporate treasuries added 2,343 BTC and miners held 1,204 BTC during the same period. The net picture: institutional money is pulling back, but corporate and miner accumulation is modest.
Miners Feel the Squeeze
Miner economics are ugly. Implied hashprice is near multi-year lows at roughly $30.6 per PH/s per day. Daily miner revenue averaged $28.5 million, down 39.5% year-over-year. Network hash rate is near record highs around 930 EH/s, so competition is fierce. Miner-held Bitcoin stayed near 1.785 million, indicating steady sales of new coins rather than capitulation.
VanEck highlights two AI-related deals by miners: TeraWulf's 20-year, $19 billion lease with Anthropic and CleanSpark's $6.6 billion deal. Those are big numbers, but miner equities have dropped about 42% from 52-week highs due to higher rates, a New York pause on data-center construction, and doubt over AI returns. The timing isn't great for miners looking to diversify.
The next thing to watch: whether skew pushes past +15 points or funding flips negative. If either happens, VanEck might change its tune. For now, it's consolidation — not a bottom.
