Ethereum has been turned away multiple times at the 100-day moving average around $1.95K this week, and the repeated rejection is sapping short-term momentum. The failure increases the odds of a broader pullback, with traders now watching key support zones that could determine whether ETH slides toward $1.56K.
The 100-day MA rejection
Bulls have tried and failed to push Ethereum above the $1.95K level — the 100-day moving average — several times in recent sessions. Each rejection has left the price lower, and the pattern is starting to look like a ceiling that sellers are happy to defend. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum broke below its ascending trendline, a move that signals buyers have lost near-term control. The trendline had been guiding price higher since late July; its loss is a technical warning.
Support levels in focus
With momentum fading, the immediate demand zone sits between $1.85K and $1.87K. If that fails, the next floor is $1.75K to $1.79K. A break below that range opens the door to the major demand area at $1.56K-$1.64K — a zone that has held multiple times this year. On the upside, bulls need to reclaim the $1.88K-$1.91K resistance area before they can even think about another run at the 100-day MA near $1.95K. That's a tall order given current conditions.
Coinbase Premium Index turns negative
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between ETH on Coinbase and other exchanges, remains negative. That means Ethereum is trading at a discount on the U.S.-based platform — a sign that institutional buying pressure from American investors is weak. Historically, sustained positive readings have accompanied strong bullish phases, while prolonged negative values reflect cautious sentiment among big players. The current reading doesn't inspire confidence for a quick recovery.
Descending channel threat
Ethereum is also struggling with a descending channel pattern. The upper boundary of that channel — a white trendline — is acting as critical support. If sellers push price back inside the channel, it would confirm a bearish continuation. That scenario would likely trigger a decline toward the $1.56K-$1.64K zone. For now, the price is teetering near that line. The next few sessions will show whether buyers can hold the line or if the channel swallows ETH again.
What to watch: Can Ethereum reclaim $1.88K-$1.91K in the coming days? If not, the path lower looks clearer. The Coinbase Premium will be a key tell — any move back toward positive territory would signal a shift in institutional appetite.
