Bitcoin is trading around $64,100 to $64,500 this week, struggling to reclaim the $65,000 mark after hitting a one-month high earlier this month. The pullback comes as US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $240 million on July 24, cooling the momentum that had pushed the asset above $66,000 just days before.
ETF outflows temper the rally
The $240 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday marked a reversal from recent inflows. Market participants are watching whether this is a one-day blip or the start of a broader trend. The outflows coincided with Bitcoin's retreat from its July 21 peak of $66,990, suggesting some traders took profits near resistance.
Prediction markets see limited upside this month
Prediction markets are pricing relatively low odds for Bitcoin to push higher in July. The chance of Bitcoin touching $67,500 by month-end sits at 34.5%, while odds for $70,000 are just 14.5% and for $72,500 a mere 4.1%. With only a few days left in July, the market is not betting on a breakout above recent highs.
Technical levels to watch
Barron's technical analysis is constructive on Bitcoin as long as it holds above $62,500. That level is key support — a weekly close below it would invalidate the current recovery trend. On the upside, a breakout pivot near $67,000, tied to an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, would confirm a bullish move. The next major resistance is $68,000, which also happens to be the short-term holder cost basis, according to Bitfinex data. That means many recent buyers are underwater, and a reclaim of $68,000 could trigger a wave of selling or renewed confidence.
What the weekly close will tell us
Sunday's weekly close is the next concrete event. If Bitcoin finishes above $62,500, the constructive outlook holds. A close below that level would put the recovery in doubt and open the door to a test of $60,000, which analysts see as a structural floor. The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting adds another layer of macro uncertainty, though rate decisions are not expected to directly move crypto markets as much as they did in 2025.
For now, Bitcoin is stuck in a range between $62,500 and $65,000, with volume more than 40% below its recent average. That low participation makes it hard to break out in either direction — but it also means a sudden move could catch traders off guard.
