Fidelity Digital Assets says the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has never been higher. Nearly 15 million BTC — roughly 71% of the circulating supply — hasn't budged in at least 155 days. The record was set on July 5, 2026, according to the firm's latest on-chain report.
That's a lot of diamond hands. But here's the twist: almost 40% of those long-term holders are sitting on unrealized losses. Bitcoin is trading about 50% below its October 2025 peak above $126,000. Previous bear markets saw declines of 70%, 80%, and 90%. Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright sees the relatively shallower drawdown as a sign the market is maturing.
What the on-chain data says
Fidelity notes that several on-chain metrics are approaching levels historically associated with Bitcoin market cycle bottoms. But the firm is careful not to call a definitive turning point. “Whether these signals mark a definitive turning point,” the report says. That's not a quote from Wainwright — it's a paraphrase of the report's cautious tone.
Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence experts council, projects a fourth-quarter bottoming window with a potential low near $44,000. That would be another leg down from current levels.
August could be rough
History isn't on Bitcoin's side this month. August has historically been a negative month for Bitcoin in midterm election years, with losses between 15% and 18%. The U.S. midterms are in November, so the pattern could repeat. The timing isn't great for bulls hoping the long-term holder record sparks a rally.
Still, the record holder count suggests conviction among those who've held through the drawdown. Whether that conviction gets tested further depends on whether the on-cycle signals Fidelity is watching actually turn into a bottom — or just another head fake.
