Bitcoin needs to push back above $88,880 and hold there to confirm a bottom is in, according to a fresh analysis from Cryptoquant. The on-chain data firm says that level marks a critical threshold where the market's short-term cost basis meets a cluster of spent output age bands — meaning a sustained break above it would signal that recent selling pressure is exhausted.
The $88,880 threshold
Cryptoquant's analysts looked at Bitcoin's realized price across different UTXO age bands. They found that $88,880 corresponds to the aggregate cost basis of coins moved within the last week to one month. That cohort tends to act as a price floor during recoveries — but only if the market can reclaim it. If Bitcoin fails to hold that level, the analysis suggests the bottoming process isn't complete yet.
The firm didn't call a definitive bottom. Instead, it framed $88,880 as a "confirmation trigger" — a line in the sand that, if crossed and held, would make the case that the worst of the selloff is behind us. Below it, the data remains ambiguous.
Trapped buyers and resistance
The UTXO age bands also flagged several realized price points where buyers who got in near local tops could become resistance on the way up. Those trapped positions — coins acquired at higher prices and never moved — tend to get sold once the price returns to their cost basis, creating overhead supply.
Cryptoquant identified a few such clusters, though the precise levels weren't disclosed in the public summary. The general takeaway: even if Bitcoin clears $88,880, the path higher won't be a straight line. Old holders looking to break even could cap rallies until demand absorbs their supply.
The analysis is purely data-driven. No price targets, no timelines. Just a set of on-chain signals that, combined, give traders a framework for judging whether the market has truly turned.
