Bitcoin is pushing toward $65,000 this week, buoyed by a combination of former President Donald Trump's comments on jobs and inflation and a potential deal to ease tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The cryptocurrency's next leg depends on whether lower oil prices drag down Treasury yields and the dollar.
Trump's remarks boost risk appetite
Trump's latest statements on the economy — specifically his take on jobs and inflation — have helped improve risk sentiment across markets. While the former president didn't mention crypto directly, the broader mood shift has lifted Bitcoin along with equities. The timing matters: Bitcoin had been struggling to hold above $60,000, and the fresh macro tailwind gave it a push.
Strait of Hormuz deal in focus
Reports of a possible agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz are also feeding the risk-on move. A deal would likely lower oil prices by reducing supply disruption fears. That's key for Bitcoin because cheaper oil tends to ease inflation expectations, which in turn can pull Treasury yields and the dollar down — both bullish for risk assets like crypto.
Bitcoin's near-term direction now hinges on whether lower oil actually materializes and whether that translates into lower yields and a weaker dollar. If the macro setup continues to improve, a break above $65,000 could open the door to further gains. But if oil stays elevated or the dollar firms, the rally could stall. No specific catalyst is on the calendar this week, so traders are watching the oil market and any new headlines out of the Middle East.
