Bitcoin nearly hit $67,000 on Monday after President Trump said the US helped broker a peace deal with Iran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The jump came as a huge number of BTC holders are sitting on paper losses — the second-largest unrealized loss in the asset's history, according to on-chain data. That tension between a headline-driven rally and a shaky underlying market has analysts split on what comes next.
The Iran deal and the market reaction
Trump's announcement Monday that the US had mediated a peace agreement with Iran, reopening the critical oil shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, sent Bitcoin briefly above $66,800. The move was fast — a classic geopolitical risk-off-to-risk-on flip. But the gains didn't hold much above $67,000, and price has since settled just under that level.
Unrealized pain, but holders aren't selling
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson pointed out that while unrealized losses are near historic highs, realized losses — the actual sales at a loss — remain relatively low. “That gap is a major signal for the market,” Wedson said. He explained that if realized losses start rising sharply, Bitcoin could face “a more aggressive cleansing phase.” In plain terms: holders are hurting on paper but not panic-selling yet. That can change quickly.
A liquidity grab, not a breakout?
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows isn't convinced the move is sustainable. “Looks more like a liquidity grab than a real breakout,” Pillows said. He sees a possible push toward $68,000 to $70,000 if Bitcoin can hold above $65,000, but he doesn't think the market has enough strength to confirm that move. Pillows noted two big catalysts this week: the Fed meeting and the possibility of more rate hikes from Japan. “They'll play a big role in deciding where the market moves next,” he added.
The level to watch
Analyst Lennaert Snyder zoomed in on a specific price zone. Holding $64,800 is important to keep the short-term uptrend intact, Snyder said. That level now becomes the line in the sand — above it, the rally has a chance; below it, the liquidity grab narrative wins out.
The Fed's two-day meeting starts Tuesday, and any signal on rate cuts or hikes will move markets. Japan's central bank decision later this week adds another variable. For now, Bitcoin traders are watching whether the peace-deal bounce can survive a double dose of monetary policy.
