Bitcoin extended its winning streak to four weeks, but the rally stalled near $68,500 as short-term holders sold near their cost basis. The digital asset climbed to a weekly high of $67,000 on Tuesday before dropping 5% as profit-taking emerged. The short-term holder cost basis has stabilized near $68,500, becoming a key resistance area that bulls have yet to break.
ETF flows turn negative after three weeks of gains
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight week of net inflows totaling $33.9 million, but the week ended on a sour note with $465.2 million in outflows on Thursday and Friday. BlackRock's IBIT turned net negative. The Coinbase Premium Index has remained below zero for more than 60 consecutive trading days, signaling weak US demand.
CME futures and options hit lows
CME Bitcoin futures fell below $6 billion, while options reached a September 2023 low. 30-day spot trading volumes are at just 62.4% of their yearly average, indicating a lack of conviction.
Macro headwinds mount
Rising US diesel prices continue to pressure transport and inflation, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's policy path. Futures markets assign about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at this week's FOMC meeting. The US 10-year real yield has climbed to 2.43%, approaching a level that could pressure risk assets. Bitcoin remains range-bound between $63,000 and $68,500.
The FOMC decision this week could determine whether Bitcoin breaks above $68,500 or retests the lower end of its range.
