Bitcoin hit overhead resistance at $82,350 on the 4-hour chart and got knocked back, but the pullback is shaping up as a bull flag rather than a reversal. The price structure has morphed from a pennant into a slightly ascending channel, and the measured move from that pattern targets around $95,400 — close to the $97,900 level that would officially end the bear market.
The channel and the levels that matter
After tagging $82,350, price fell below the channel midpoint, which now flips into resistance. The $79,520 level could also act as resistance if price retests it. Downside support sits at $78,530, and that's where a dip could find buyers.
The top of the old wedge — now the bottom of the channel — is a short-term target if the pattern holds. On the 4-hour Stochastic RSI, the lines are heading toward the bottom, and once they get there, they could signal renewed upward momentum.
Why the daily chart still works
The daily chart shows a rising channel sitting on top of a huge rally. That alone isn't ideal for continuation, but superimposing another channel creates the slight downward slant needed for a proper bull flag. If the flag plays out, the measured move is to about $95,400, which sits just under the $97,900 needed to change the bear trend to bull.
The weekly chart shows the entire bear market and a towering recovery candle. Momentum is to the upside after the breakout, even if a downward wave comes first. The weekly Stochastic RSI may be rolling over, but the 80.00 level can act as support.
What happens if the flag fails
If the higher high isn't made, price could roll over and see another lower low. The expected thesis is that the bull flag plays out; if not, a dip to support levels could be followed by a resumption of the upside move. Bulls still hold sway, but a correction below $69,000 would cause real concern.
The next concrete thing to watch is whether price holds above $78,530 and whether the 4-hour Stochastic RSI turns up from the bottom. That would set up the push toward $95,400. If that level gets taken out, the $97,900 mark becomes the line in the sand for the trend change.
