Bitcoin is trading near its lowest price levels since late 2024, extending a selloff that has now stretched roughly 240 days. Analyst Rekt Capital, in a review of past cycles, notes that the current drawdown — at 53% from the all-time high — is significantly shallower than the 77% and 84% declines seen in the previous two bear markets.
Comparing drawdowns across cycles
Rekt Capital points to a clear pattern: each successive crypto bear market has been less severe. The 2018 cycle saw an 84% peak-to-trough drop. The 2021–2022 bear market bottomed out at a 77% retracement. This time, Bitcoin is only 53% off its high. If the trend holds, the correction could become even shallower — possibly a 70% retracement or a reduction that accelerates to a 60% decline, implying a bottom in the high $30,000 range or low $40,000 region.
Duration still has room to run
While the 2021–2022 downturn lasted about 365 days, the current pullback has only been underway for roughly 240 days. That leaves at least 120 days before the cycle would match historical averages — meaning more pain could lie ahead before a true bottom. The analyst notes that previous cycles included periods of consolidation followed by additional leg downs, and another drop of up to 20% from current levels remains possible.
The larger picture
The data suggests that Bitcoin bear markets, while painful, are compressing in both depth and perhaps time. Rekt Capital frames the current downtrend not as a permanent decline but as a corrective phase preceding a multi-year period of upside. For now, the market remains in a waiting pattern, with no clear catalyst to break the range — and the calendar may not be on Bitcoin's side.
The next few months will test whether history repeats. If the pattern of shorter, shallower downturns holds, the window for a floor opens in the second half of 2026. Until then, the 120-day countdown continues.
