Bitcoin fell 15% over four days this week, trading around $64,000 after touching a four-month low of $61,383. For the first time in this bear cycle, BTC tagged the 200-week Simple Moving Average — a level Rekt Capital linked to bear market bottoms in prior downturns.
Why the 200-week SMA matters
The 200-week SMA has historically acted as a floor during prolonged price declines. Rekt Capital noted similarities with the 2022 bear market, where dropping below that line led to further losses before a final bottom formed. This time around, Bitcoin’s breakdown from the 50-month Exponential Moving Average and a rejection near the $82,500 base of the Macro Triangle strengthen the bearish case. The analyst described the pattern as one seen before market bottoms — not a guarantee, but a warning.
Fading rallies, weak support
Rekt Capital also observed that Bitcoin’s bounces off the $60,000 area have grown weaker since 2024. Each rally loses energy faster, suggesting the support zone will be lost over time. “Breakdown from $72,000 support leaves Bitcoin vulnerable,” independent analyst Ali Martinez said, paraphrased from his technical note. Based on MVRV Pricing Bands, he put the next major support between $54,000 and $50,000. Over the past decade, BTC has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Bands — a range that currently covers that $54k–$50k window.
What happens next
The 200-week SMA sits just below $62,000, so Bitcoin is already testing it. If that line breaks, the path to $54,000 is clear. The timing isn't great: price action has been deteriorating for months, and the latest drop wiped out any optimism from the $60,000 recovery attempts. Whether the 200-week SMA holds this time, or the market repeats the 2022 playbook of a deeper washout, remains the open question for the week ahead.
