Bitcoin dipped below $75,000 for the second time this month on Thursday, sliding to an intraday low near $74,200 before extending losses to $73,600 as of press time. The latest leg lower comes just days before the May monthly options expiry, where more than $8 billion in negative gamma is concentrated near the $75,000 strike. The first break below that level came on May 23, triggered by spot ETF outflows and forced liquidations.
Price action below $75,000
Thursday’s move took BTC as low as $72,600, according to market data. Glassnode identifies the $75,000–$78,000 band as a key bottleneck, with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the True Market Mean both converging near $78,000. Spot Volume Delta has rolled back toward sell-side dominance, erasing the brief recovery seen earlier in May. The timing isn’t great — the $75,000 level has become a psychological and technical flashpoint.
Options expiry and gamma risk
The May monthly options expiry is the immediate focal point. With over $8 billion in negative gamma piled up at the $75,000 strike, dealers are likely hedging in ways that amplify downward moves. If BTC fails to reclaim $78,000 after expiry, the bear case outlined by Glassnode sees persistent ETF outflows and a drift below $75,000. On the flip side, a clean expiry could clear the overhang and allow spot-led buying to push price back above $78,000, signaling what the firm calls a “pre-bull transition.”
ETF outflows and macro headwinds
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen roughly $2.26 billion in outflows over the past two weeks. Daily figures include $648.6 million on May 18, $331.1 million on May 19, $105.2 million on May 22, and $333.6 million on May 26. The selling pressure isn’t isolated to crypto — US equity funds recorded over $12 billion in outflows in the week ending May 20. Glassnode points to constrained liquidity, elevated yields, oil price volatility, a firm dollar, and Iran-related geopolitical uncertainty as forces keeping Bitcoin tightly correlated with broader risk appetite.
On-chain signals weaken
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio sits at 1.56, well below the 2–5 range typical of early bull markets. Short-term holder net realized P&L has recovered from -0.44% in February to around -0.02%, but that’s still barely breakeven. Until demand picks up and ETF outflows reverse, the path of least resistance appears lower.
All eyes are on next week’s monthly options settlement. Whether that event clears the negative gamma or triggers another wave of selling will likely set the tone for June.
