Bitcoin is trading a little over $82,423 on Monday, down 2% in 24 hours and 3% over the past week. The world's largest cryptocurrency is also in the red so far this month, a rough start to what traders like to call 'Uptober.'
It's a familiar pattern in 2026. Bitcoin has spent most of the year in a bear market, but it just posted its best quarter in years and a solid September. Now October — traditionally a strong month — is off to a sour start.
The tariff overhang
The immediate culprit is macro. President Donald Trump's tariff threats have rattled risk assets across the board, and crypto took the hit directly: over $19 billion in digital asset bets were liquidated in the aftermath, wiping out long positions and marking the biggest liquidation event in crypto history.
Oil prices are adding to the pain. Brent crude has eased from nearly $110 to around $103, but it's still elevated enough that investors expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to fight inflation. On Sunday, markets priced roughly an 18% chance of an October Fed hike. Higher rates tend to hurt bitcoin because they make safer assets look more attractive.
Oddly enough, the Fed already raised rates last month — and bitcoin rose anyway. So the relationship isn't mechanical, and traders know it.
Signals of a bottom
Despite the bad start to the month, some analysts see reasons for optimism. Japanese asset management platform XWIN, writing for CryptoQuant, said signs of a potential bottom are emerging for bitcoin. The note didn't call the exact low, but the suggestion is that selling pressure is thinning out.
Other analysts are making a more technical case. Bitcoin has crossed its 365-day moving average, a level that has historically marked the start of bull markets in past cycles. That signal alone doesn't guarantee anything, but it's the kind of thing that gets traders paying attention.
Why October still matters
History is on bitcoin's side, at least seasonally. October has finished green in eight of the last 10 years. Last October was one of the outliers — bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,080 before rolling into a bear market after October 10, when the liquidation cascade hit.
That memory is still fresh. It's also why this month's early weakness is getting outsized attention. A repeat of last year's late-October breakdown would be painful. A rebound would fit the seasonal pattern and give the bottom-callers something to point to.
For now, the market is stuck between two stories: the macro headwinds that keep pressure on prices, and the on-chain and technical signals that suggest the worst might be over. Neither side has decisively won.
The next test comes with the Fed's October meeting. If the central bank holds off on a hike, bitcoin could get room to breathe. If it doesn't, the 'Uptober' narrative gets harder to sell.
