Bitcoin's on-chain profit metric has clawed back ground in recent weeks, but the data suggests the market hasn't fully shaken off the weakness that set in earlier this year. The percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit — a 7-day simple moving average — stood at 63.3% on May 18, up from a March low of 53.6% but still about 10 percentage points below January's levels and well under the historical cumulative average of roughly 76.9%.
Still below the norm
The current 63.3% reading means nearly two-thirds of Bitcoin's circulating supply is sitting on unrealized gains, but that's a far cry from the peaks seen earlier in 2026. The metric had been above 72% in January before sliding through February and March. While the recovery off the March low is notable, the gap to the long-term average suggests plenty of holders bought in at higher prices and haven't seen those positions turn green yet.
Short-term holders in the red
A closer look at short-term holders — typically defined as addresses that have held coins for 155 days or less — shows a more fragile picture. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) 7-day SMA was 0.9994 on May 18, just below the neutral 1.0 mark that separates profit-taking from loss realization. That means the average short-term holder who moved coins in the past week took a slight loss. The metric had recovered from a cycle low of 0.967 in early February and stabilized in the 1.001-1.009 range through April, but it slipped back below parity recently.
The $76,000–$77,000 line
Analyst Axel Adler Jr., who tracks these metrics, describes the current phase as a recovery that hasn't fully normalized. He maintains a neutral stance with a cautious bias, pointing to a critical price zone between $76,000 and $77,000. Bitcoin traded around $76,900 at the time of the analysis and was at $77,015 at press time. If the price can hold above that band, Adler argues, STH-SOPR could push back above 1.0. A drop to the $73,000–$74,000 range, however, could drag the metric to 0.98–0.99, signaling deeper short-term pain.
What a real reversal would look like
Adler lays out a few concrete markers for a stronger confirmation of a trend change. STH-SOPR would need to stay above 1.0 for five to seven consecutive days. Bitcoin itself would need to climb above $78,000 to $80,000. And the supply-in-profit figure would have to move toward the 68%–70% range. None of those conditions are met yet, leaving the market in a gray zone.
For now, Bitcoin is hugging the lower boundary of Adler's critical zone. Whether it can hold or slips further will likely determine whether short-term holders start to feel relief — or more pain.
