Bitcoin climbed 21% over the past 30 days, breaching $81,000 for the first time since January. The rally was triggered by a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart that technical analyst Ali Martinez flagged on April 13. Since then, BTC has added roughly 15%, but the real test lies ahead: can it break through the 200-day moving average near $83,000?
The signal that sparked the move
Martinez pointed to the weekly MACD crossover — a classic momentum indicator — that flipped bullish on April 13. Historical data shows such crossovers have preceded serious rallies: a 147% surge after October 23, 2023; a 75% climb after October 14, 2024; and a 35% rally after May 5, 2025. This time around, the move lifted Bitcoin from the mid-$60,000s to above $81,000. The pattern is consistent, but past performance doesn't guarantee a repeat.
Key levels to watch
Bitcoin is now approaching the 200-day simple moving average (200SMA) around $83,000 — widely seen as the most important psychological and structural barrier on the daily chart. A clean daily close above it could open the door to a macro expansion, first toward $89,000, with a secondary target near $94,000. Market analyst Sam Daodu also noted that Bitcoin reclaimed the Bull Market Support Band — the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA — at $79,000. Historically, reclaiming that band after extended periods below often leads to 50%+ rallies within months. Daodu's target: roughly $121,000, which would be just below the all-time high of ~$126,000 reached last October.
Uncertainty remains
Despite the optimistic setup, the rally isn't guaranteed to continue. The reports emphasize that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold above key levels to maintain momentum. The $83,000 area is a tough nut — previous attempts to break above it in February and March failed quickly. If the 200SMA rejects the price, a correction could drag BTC back toward the $75,000 or even $70,000 range. The next few days will show whether the bulls can clear that line or whether the market needs another reset.
