Bitcoin is trading just above $65,000 on Thursday, down about 12% over the past two days, as the market retests a critical support zone that acted as the launchpad for the last major upswing. The rejection from the $78,000–$80,000 area earlier this month produced a lower high beneath the declining 50-week moving average — the latest in a sequence of lower highs that has defined the bearish structure since Bitcoin topped near $120,000 last year.
The February floor in play
The $63,000–$66,000 zone was the foundation of the February bottom and sparked the subsequent rally that pushed prices above $72,000. Losing that level now would put the 200-week moving average around $62,000 in play. Bulls need to defend the zone and reclaim $72,000 to open a recovery toward the mid-$70,000s.
On-chain data shows a wait-and-see market
Exchange reserves for Bitcoin are still declining, suggesting investors continue moving coins to long-term storage — a historically bullish signal if demand picks up. But the Stablecoin Supply Ratio points to significant buying power sitting on the sidelines, not deployed yet. The Coinbase Premium Index remains weak, indicating U.S. institutional demand hasn't returned. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is near neutral, reflecting limited conviction among traders. Open Interest has cooled after a rapid expansion in May, which does reduce liquidation risk.
What would signal a real revival
The indicators to watch for a genuine demand revival are straightforward: positive ETF flows, the Coinbase Premium climbing back above zero, SOPR rising above 1, and continued structural decline in exchange reserves. None of those have triggered yet. The MVRV ratio is rising but remains well below historical overheating levels — meaning there's room for upside if sentiment shifts, but no urgency from the data to call a bottom yet.
Where that leaves the market this week
The immediate question is whether buyers step in at $64,000–$66,000 the same way they did in February. A failure below $64,000 opens the door to the 200-week moving average near $62,000 — a level that hasn't been tested since the depths of the 2022 bear market. If bulls can hold the line and push price back above $72,000, the technical picture improves sharply. For now, the market is in a waiting pattern, watching the tape on the support zone.
