Bitcoin entered July 29 with three demand channels losing momentum near $64,000, as four consecutive US spot Bitcoin ETF sessions saw $526.5 million in net outflows. The largest cryptocurrency traded around $64,200, making $64,000 an immediate market test rather than a guaranteed floor, according to data from Farside Investors and Glassnode.
ETF outflows pile up
Farside Investors recorded $225.1 million in net outflows on July 23, followed by $240.1 million on July 24, $11.6 million on July 27, and $49.7 million on July 28. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for 90% of a $225 million reversal on one of those days, ending a seven-day buying streak. That single reversal erased 22.5% of the preceding $999.3 million inflow streak, and Bitcoin ended that session below $65,000.
The outflows show weakness in a major regulated demand channel, but they don't represent the entire institutional market. Finalized flows can reflect positioning established at different points during a trading session, so the timing of the withdrawals matters.
Perpetual futures and on-chain signals
Glassnode’s Week 31 market pulse described Bitcoin’s retreat from roughly $66,700 toward $64,000 and a subsequent recovery to about $65,100. Perpetual-futures buy-side aggression declined, and long-side funding payments cooled sharply — even as aggregate open interest increased slightly. That combination suggests traders are less willing to pay up for long exposure.
On-chain measures painted a mixed picture. Active addresses held steady, but economic settlement and transaction pressure remained restrained. Broader capital inflows were stagnant. Regulated investment products shifted into net outflows as weekly trading volume declined.
Options market shows less hedging
Options analysis found about 52 open put contracts for every 100 calls, down from 76 in late June. The premium for one-week downside protection eased, but puts still traded above comparable calls. Options traders were carrying less immediate protection even as perpetual-futures demand softened — a divergence that could leave the market exposed if selling accelerates.
Long-term holders stay put
Long-term holders continued to show conviction. Aggregate unrealized losses declined modestly, and realized losses eased. The holder-buffer thesis — the idea that long-term holders provide a support floor — would weaken if a sustained break below the local range arrived with renewed long-term-holder distribution, rising realized losses, or faster selling pressure. A brief move below $64,000 without that deterioration would show a deeper price test but not establish that holder-led support had broken.
For now, the market is watching whether $64,000 holds. If it doesn't, the next question is whether long-term holders start to distribute — or whether the dip gets bought.
