Bitcoin touched the $76,000 horizontal support level this week and is currently trading around $77,000. The price has fallen into a bear flag pattern below the $80,000 resistance zone, and bulls need to push back above $78,700 to avoid forming a lower high. While short-term momentum indicators suggest a potential bounce, the weekly chart is flashing a pattern similar to the 2022 bear market — one that could take Bitcoin to $62,000.
Bear flag on the daily chart
The daily chart shows Bitcoin slipping below $80,000 and consolidating in a descending channel. The stochastic RSI on the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily timeframes are all at their bottoms — technically oversold. That usually hints at an imminent rally, but so far it hasn't materialized. The RSI itself has dropped out of its ascending channel on the daily chart, a bearish signal that suggests momentum is fading.
For any relief rally to stick, bulls need to reclaim $78,700. That's the level that separates the current consolidation from a potential lower high. If they can't, the bear flag remains in play.
Weekly chart echoes late 2022
The weekly chart shows a pattern that looks uncomfortably familiar. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin broke out of a range, rallied 12–14%, then retested the breakout trendline with a 25% drop. If that sequence repeats here, a 25% decline from the recent $83,000 high would land Bitcoin at $62,000.
There is a more optimistic read, though. A trendline drawn through bull market tops, when shifted down in parallel, touches the September 2023 bottom and the recent $60,000 low. That suggests a large ascending channel is still intact. The 200-week simple moving average is moving in concert with that lower trendline, reinforcing the idea that $60,000 may have been the cycle bottom.
The levels that matter
The immediate task for Bitcoin is to hold $76,000. A breakdown below that support could accelerate selling toward $74,000 and then the $70,000 area. On the upside, reclaiming $78,700 is the first step, followed by $80,000. A weekly close above $80,000 would invalidate the bear flag and shift focus back to the top of the channel near $90,000.
No one's calling a top or bottom right now. The market is waiting to see whether the bulls can defend $76,000 or whether the bear flag plays out to the downside. The next few days should reveal which way the pattern resolves.
