Nearly 40% of Bitcoin in circulation was purchased at prices above current trading levels, leaving a huge chunk of holders sitting on unrealized losses. With the market hovering around $73,510, the share of supply in the red has approached 50% — a level not seen since the 2022 downturn. And while long-term holders are clinging to a record stash, fresh demand from whales and dolphins has all but dried up.
The 15.8 million BTC bunker
Long-term holder supply hit an all-time high of 15.8 million BTC this month. That sounds bullish on the surface — hodlers aren't selling. But analysts read it differently: existing holders are holding steady because they're underwater or unwilling to lock in losses, while almost no new buyer demand is flowing in. The result is a frozen market where price discovery depends on a catalyst that hasn't arrived yet.
Whales aren't biting
Whale accounts — those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC — show negative annual balance growth, with monthly growth flat since February. That's the same pattern that played out during the 2022 bear market. Meanwhile, dolphin-sized holders (100 to 1,000 BTC) are exhibiting sharply slowing annual balance growth, with monthly growth near zero and lower highs since September 2025. In short, the biggest players aren't accumulating. They're sitting on their hands.
The path back depends on central banks
HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun said recovery requires easier monetary policy and improved financial conditions. That's a straightforward read: Bitcoin's current funk isn't just about crypto-specific factors — it's tied to the broader liquidity environment. Until central banks shift, the pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin, is likely to persist. The market is left waiting for the next move from the Fed and its peers.
For now, the question is whether easier policy arrives before the unrealized loss share pushes past 50% — and what happens if it does.
