Bitcoin is etching an Adam and Eve double bottom on its weekly chart, a technical pattern that could drive the price to $173,000 if it plays out. The setup requires a decisive weekly close above $83,000, followed by a retest that holds that level as new support. The bounce has been accompanied by a sharp drop in realized volatility and a resumption of spot ETF inflows after eight weeks of outflows.
The Adam and Eve setup
The pattern is forming inside the $51,000 to $67,000 support band, with the neckline at $83,000. The analyst's roadmap includes holding the current bottom, reclaiming $68,000, breaking and retesting $83,000, then moving toward $103,000, $120,000–$126,000, and finally $173,000. A weekly close below roughly $51,000 would invalidate the setup. Trader Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin's daily Supertrend flipped green; the last time that happened, BTC gained nearly 15% in four weeks, which would put it near $76,000 by August.
Volatility and leverage drop
Realized volatility for Bitcoin fell 31% this month to its lowest since 2016. At the same time, leverage — measured as open interest relative to market cap — declined for 21 consecutive days. That makes the current bounce less prone to a forced liquidation cascade, a risk that has haunted rallies in the past. Implied volatility on Bitcoin and Ethereum options climbed back to 36% after dropping to 31% from 44%, indicating rising demand for upside calls.
ETF inflows and sentiment
The bounce coincided with a resumption of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs after eight weeks of outflows. Sentiment also improved following progress on the CLARITY Act's ethics language, though details remain sparse. Bitcoin was trading near $66,000 at the time of writing, down slightly on the day but up over 2% in the past week and close to 3% in the last month. It came within touching distance of $67,000 before being pulled back, and is about 47% below its all-time high from October 2025 when it surpassed $126,000.
The $68,000 test
Bitfinex identified $68,000 as the next test, with a reaction zone between $67,900 and $68,300 where short-term holders may sell. The exchange noted that a real breakout requires spot buying rather than speculation. Analyst ChartNerd called the current rally a countertrend move and suggested the 200-week EMA near $68,000 could be the local top before a final drop into late Q3 or Q4. That puts the next few weeks in focus: can Bitcoin hold above $68,000 and eventually break $83,000, or will the countertrend thesis win out?
