Bitcoin coins that had sat untouched for a year or more moved in large volumes during 2024 and 2025, but that wave has ebbed dramatically in 2026. According to Galaxy Research data shared by analyst Alex Thorn, the volume of such old-coin movement this year is less than half of what it was in 2025. Thorn interprets the slowdown as evidence that Bitcoin's 'Great Distribution' has largely run its course.
What the data shows
Galaxy's chart, which filters out exchange and custodial churn to get a cleaner signal, shows the one-year-plus supply awakening peaked at over 4 million BTC in 2024. By 2026, that figure had fallen below 2 million. The filtering matters: Coinbase's roughly $69.5 billion internal wallet migration illustrates why raw numbers can mislead.
Glassnode's take on the bottom
Glassnode's own report paints a similar picture of a market still building a bottom. Three long-term-holder (LTH) readings stand out: profit-taking has nearly disappeared, the LTH share of realized losses has stopped climbing, and entity-adjusted realized losses turned down from a cycle peak about two weeks ago. The two firms use different time thresholds — Galaxy defines old coins as 1 year or more, while Glassnode's LTH threshold is about 155 days. A coin bought in September 2025 crosses 155 days by mid-February 2026, months before it would register in Galaxy's one-year-plus chart.
Who's selling now
Long-term holders realizing losses in 2026 may be buyers who absorbed Bitcoin during the 2024-2025 distribution, not original older holders. Neither Galaxy's nor Glassnode's dataset can identify sellers at the wallet level, so the exact composition remains unclear. What is clear: profit-taking by long-term holders has nearly disappeared, and realized losses now account for most LTH selling.
The $69,000 test
Glassnode identifies the short-term-holder cost basis near $69,000 as the next key level — the aggregate acquisition price for that cohort. Bitcoin currently trades in the mid-$60,000s, making $69,000 a live near-term test. A convincing reclaim would move a large share of recent buyers back into profit; rejection keeps them underwater. Reduced selling measures supply easing, but new demand is still needed. ETF inflows have been short, scattered bursts, not sustained. Derivatives positioning shows de-risking among leveraged traders, but real spot buying has yet to back it up.
