Bitcoin's inability to push decisively higher may be less about crypto-specific headwinds and more about a broader liquidity squeeze, according to macro analyst Luke Gromen. He told his audience this week that the cryptocurrency's recent weakness looks like a warning signal — what he called 'one of, if not the last functioning smoke alarm of liquidity.' At press time, Bitcoin traded at $60,966.
Gromen's own position
Gromen hasn't been buying the dip in any serious way. He said he's only 'nibbled a little bit' and hasn't rebuilt his Bitcoin position in any meaningful size. That restraint from a known macro bull is itself notable. He compared the dynamic to the gold market, where paper derivatives can absorb real buying pressure and keep the spot price from reflecting true demand. Bitcoin, he argued, faces the same kind of paper-market headwind right now.
Where the liquidity went
The bigger story, in Gromen's view, is where capital is flowing instead. After the Iran war, liquidity rotated hard into AI-related equities and energy and commodities. That left Bitcoin as a 'victim' — starved of the flows it would normally attract during periods of monetary uncertainty. The timing isn't great for a crypto market already dealing with regulatory noise and post-halving doldrums.
Gromen acknowledged that policymakers can manage the optics in the short run by leaning on derivatives. But he doesn't think that can last forever. Eventually, the real supply-demand imbalance shows up.
What Gromen sees ahead
His base case isn't a full-blown crash but a divergence. Equities will keep rising in dollar terms, he expects, while falling when priced in gold or Bitcoin. That's a roundabout way of saying fiat-denominated prices can still go up even as purchasing power erodes. He also sees 10-year Treasury yields staying contained in the 4% to 4.5% range — a backdrop that would keep real rates negative and theoretically supportive for hard assets, but only if those assets actually get the liquidity.
For Bitcoin, the question is whether the AI-and-energy trade ever rotates back. Gromen's smoke alarm analogy suggests he's watching, but not yet ready to step in.
