Cardano has been one of the best-performing major cryptocurrencies over the past month, with a 15% rally that saw large investors pile in. But that momentum has stalled. After whales accumulated over 240 million ADA in less than a week, the price climbed to nearly $0.21 — its highest since early June — before sliding back to $0.187. Now a cluster of technical warning signs and a regulatory setback are raising questions about how much further the move can run.
The warning signs
Analyst Ali Martinez is cautioning that a deeper pullback could be coming. He points to a decline in whale holdings — addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA — which have dropped from 2,370 to 2,340. That shift suggests profit-taking or redistribution rather than fresh accumulation.
The technical picture backs that up. A death cross between Cardano's MVRC ratio and its 7-day simple moving average points to weakening momentum. The TD Sequential indicator has also printed a sell signal on the daily chart. If those signals are confirmed, ADA could fall toward $0.17, a mid-range support level, and potentially down to $0.144 at the lower boundary. That would represent a roughly 25% decline from current levels.
ETF hopes fade
Adding to the pressure, Grayscale has withdrawn its ETF filing for three altcoins, including Cardano. The move dashes hopes for a near-term exchange-traded product that could have brought fresh demand to the market. For a token that had been riding a wave of optimism, the timing isn't great.
What's holding the price up
Not everything points down. Exchange outflows for ADA have surpassed inflows, meaning investors are moving tokens to self-custody rather than preparing to sell. That reduces immediate selling pressure and could put a floor under the price.
The Relative Strength Index has also dropped to 25, a level that signals extreme oversold conditions. In the past, that has often been treated as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to flee. The question is whether the technical signals or the accumulation pattern wins out in the coming sessions.
For now, the market is watching whether ADA can hold above $0.17. A break below that level would open the door to the lower boundary at $0.144. If buyers step back in at these oversold levels, the recent pullback could turn out to be a pause rather than a reversal.
