The CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto market structure bill, is no longer expected to become law in 2026. Prediction markets have effectively ruled out its passage this year after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to seek cloture on the legislation Tuesday. The move marks a significant setback for industry advocates who had hoped for federal clarity before the midterm elections.
Thune's decision stalls the bill
Thune did not file for cloture on the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, a procedural step needed to force a floor vote. Without it, the bill remains stuck in committee with no clear path forward. The delay follows months of negotiations that failed to produce a compromise acceptable to both parties.
Prediction markets flip
Following Thune's inaction, prediction markets have shifted sharply. Contracts betting on CLARITY Act passage in 2026 are now trading near zero, reflecting the consensus that the bill will not advance this year. The change came swiftly after Tuesday's missed deadline.
With the CLARITY Act effectively shelved for 2026, the crypto industry faces another year without a comprehensive federal framework. The next opportunity for legislative action would come in 2027, though the political calendar — including the 2026 midterms — complicates any near-term push. For now, the regulatory vacuum persists. The Senate returns from recess in September, but no crypto bills are currently scheduled for debate.
