The CLARITY Act's odds of passing the Senate this year sit in a tight 38 to 48% range on Polymarket, off a recent peak, as Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) publicly withholds his support. That reduces the effective Republican base from 53 to 52 votes, meaning leadership would need roughly eight Democrats to reach the 60-vote cloture threshold. Galaxy Digital has called the bill a coin-flip at 50-50.
The Senate math
Kennedy's holdout isn't the only variable. Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), who co-architected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin yield compromise finalized May 1, has said ethics and illicit-finance provisions still need work before she can vote yes. The compromise bans bank-deposit-equivalent yield on bare stablecoin holdings but permits what it calls “bona fide” activity-linked rewards — a carveout that gave the stablecoin industry a path forward.
Kevin Wysocki, Anchorage Digital's Head of Policy, expects at least a few Democrats on Senate Banking to vote for CLARITY at markup, but he qualified that support: more work needed before a full Senate vote. The main hang-up? Ethics language, which Wysocki doesn't expect to be finalized in time for the committee vote. That leaves a question mark heading into floor consideration.
History offers some comfort. About a third of House Democrats voted for FIT21 under the Biden administration. Roughly a fifth of Senate Democrats voted to repeal SAB 121. And the GENIUS Act passed this Congress with substantial Democratic support. CLARITY itself cleared the House 294-134 in July 2025. So the bipartisan baseline is there — it's the final few votes that are uncertain.
Stablecoin moves on the ground
While the politics grind on, the stablecoin market keeps building. Anchorage Digital is the issuer of record for Western Union's USDPT stablecoin, which launched on Solana on May 4. Anchorage is already a regulated U.S. issuer for Tether's domestic stablecoin and for Ethena, and a named custodian for BlackRock's BUIDL (the largest single tokenized treasury fund) and for T. Rowe Price's pending TKNZ ETF.
The OCC consent order that had hung over Anchorage since April 2022 was lifted on August 21, 2025, after what the company described as “tens of millions” in remediation spend. That cleanup appears to have opened the door for a broader institutional push.
Wysocki, who joined Anchorage in January 2025 after a stint at Meta and earlier years on House Financial Services Committee staff, also co-chairs the Blockchain Association's Stablecoin Working Group. He frames the policy progression as gradual and bipartisan, citing faster settlement, counterparty-risk reduction, and more affordable financial services as substantive draws — not just crypto talking points.
The belt and the suspenders
The SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretive release in March 2026 — Release 33-11412 — with a five-bucket token taxonomy and a named list of 16 digital commodities. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig shared the stage with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins at the announcement. Wysocki calls that joint release the “belt” and CLARITY the “suspenders”: the release clarifies agency thinking, but CLARITY would codify agency authority in statute and create registration pathways.
Section 304 of the bill gives the SEC jurisdiction over digital commodity activities by SEC-registered broker-dealers and national securities exchanges. Section 401 gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over digital commodity spot transactions. Without the statute, the joint release remains just guidance; with it, the regulatory architecture gets a legal foundation.
The unresolved ethics language — which Alsobrooks and possibly other Democrats are waiting on — could still derail that. Until the draft is finalized, the Senate math stays tight, and Polymarket's 38-48% range looks about right.
