Senate Majority Leader John Thune intends to file cloture on the motion to proceed before the August recess, setting up a possible September vote on the CLARITY Act. But the bill's path looks steep: on Polymarket, odds of it becoming law this year have slid to around 16%.
The 60-vote math
The CLARITY Act needs 60 votes to move forward in the Senate. Republicans don't have enough support on their own, and several GOP senators have voiced concerns. Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter listed Rand Paul, Thom Tillis, Josh Hawley, James Lankford, and Bill Cassidy as uncertain Republicans.
That leaves Majority Leader Thune with little room to maneuver. Even if every other Republican backs the bill, he'd still need at least a handful of Democrats—and they have their own demands.
Stablecoin rewards fight
A major sticking point is stablecoin rewards. Banks are lobbying hard against rules that would let crypto companies offer rewards linked to stablecoin use. Coinbase and others are pushing back, arguing tighter restrictions would stifle innovation. It's a classic Washington tug-of-war, and neither side is giving ground.
The disagreement is real enough that it's holding up progress. Both industries see this as a defining issue, and they're pouring resources into lobbying.
Ethics and Trump's crypto interests
Then there's the ethics hurdle. Democrats want stronger rules around elected officials profiting from crypto businesses. That's a sensitive topic given President Donald Trump's extensive crypto interests. It's not hard to see why Democrats are pressing the point—and why it complicates any bipartisan deal.
The combination of the rewards fight and the ethics demands has left the bill in a tough spot. Porter said the disagreements mean a difficult path through the Senate.
What failure might mean
Porter also thinks failure is already priced in. If the vote flops, it may not hit crypto prices as hard as many investors expect. He argued that passage could give larger investors more confidence to make long-term crypto bets, but any effect would build over time—not trigger an immediate Bitcoin rally.
So the market might shrug off a loss. The bigger question is whether Thune can even get the bill to a vote. He's filing cloture before recess, but that's just the first step. The real test comes in September, when senators return and the actual floor vote happens. Whether the CLARITY Act survives that test is anyone's guess.
