Prediction markets had indicated a 59% probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2024, down from 68% after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill in May. The narrow support from just two Democratic lawmakers raised concerns about full Senate passage. Meanwhile, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has come out swinging against the bill, arguing it gives crypto companies an unfair competitive edge over traditional banks.
Why the probability dropped
The Senate Banking Committee vote in May saw only two Democrats break ranks to support the CLARITY Act. That thin bipartisan backing has traders dialing back expectations. Prediction market odds fell by nine percentage points almost immediately after the vote, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the bill's chances in the full chamber.
Dimon's case against the bill
Jamie Dimon has been blunt. He says the CLARITY Act would let crypto firms pay interest on customer deposits and stablecoin balances — something banks can do, but under tighter rules. Dimon argues the bill doesn't enforce the same Anti-Money Laundering, Bank Secrecy Act, or capital reserve requirements on crypto companies. His fix: force any crypto firm offering yield-bearing accounts to obtain a banking charter and comply with the full regulatory framework banks already follow.
Coinbase's lobbying blitz
Coinbase has spent hundreds of millions of dollars lobbying to push the CLARITY Act forward, according to reports. The exchange has made the bill a top priority, but Dimon's opposition and the lukewarm Democratic support suggest the path through Congress remains rocky.
Next steps on Capitol Hill
The CLARITY Act still needs approval from both chambers of Congress and President Trump's signature to become law. With the Senate vote split along party lines, securing the necessary support in the House and a final White House sign-off is far from guaranteed.
