Dogecoin's latest price jump looks more like a corrective bounce than the start of a sustained uptrend, according to crypto analytics firm MCO Global. In a note published this week, the firm said the current rally is a corrective recovery pattern, not the five-wave impulsive move needed to confirm a bullish reversal. The call puts traders on alert: if resistance levels don't break, a fifth-wave decline could still be on the table.
Resistance at $0.118 and $0.133
MCO Global identified two key resistance zones at $0.118 and $0.133 — the latter is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Beyond that, upside targets sit at $0.156 and $0.183. But the firm cautioned that until DOGE clears those first hurdles, the recovery remains fragile. On the downside, support sits at $0.105 and $0.089. Breaking below those levels, MCO said, would weaken short-term momentum and open the door to a deeper pullback.
Caligh: Slow buildup before the boom
Market analyst Caligh weighed in with a longer-term view, noting that Dogecoin has historically acted as a liquidity barometer for altcoins. Strong DOGE rallies have often coincided with renewed speculative appetite across the board, particularly since Ethereum lost some of its post-2021 dominance. Caligh emphasized that slow buildup phases tend to precede explosive Dogecoin moves — and that these phases create the foundation for larger price expansions. The advice for traders: position early during accumulation rather than chasing a rally once it's already hot.
Downside scenario if resistance holds
MCO Global's bear-case outlook is blunt. If Dogecoin fails to break above the $0.118-$0.133 resistance band, the firm predicts a fifth-wave decline that could drag the price into the $0.058-$0.047 range. That's a long way from current levels and would put the token back near lows not seen in months. For now, the market is watching whether buyers can push through $0.133 — or whether the corrective bounce runs out of steam.
