Ethereum is trading around $1.92K after rebounding from the $1.6K demand zone. The price remains stuck below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day MA sitting near $2.1K. On the 4-hour chart, ETH is consolidating above $1.85K support and compressing beneath a descending trendline that dates back to late July.
Key levels to watch
First resistance is at $2.1K — that's where the 200-day moving average meets a supply zone. A breakout above that could open the door to $2.4K. On the downside, immediate support sits around $1.85K. Losing that level would likely mean a retest of the $1.6K demand zone. If the descending trendline holds, a breakdown below $1.85K could send ETH toward $1.75K.
Exchange supply keeps falling
The Exchange Supply Ratio has dropped to roughly 0.127, the lowest reading on the chart. That means fewer coins are sitting on exchanges — investors are moving them to self-custody or long-term storage. Falling exchange balances typically reduce sell-side pressure, which is a bullish signal if demand holds up. But the price hasn't responded yet, suggesting buyers are still waiting for a catalyst.
What needs to happen for a breakout
A sustained move above the descending trendline and the $2.2K resistance cluster is needed to confirm a bullish reversal. Right now, ETH is compressing between $1.85K support and that trendline. The longer it stays in this range, the more explosive the eventual move could be — in either direction. The next few sessions will tell whether the declining exchange supply is enough to push price through resistance, or if sellers step in first.
