Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, now puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 75% — up from 50% in April. He points to a single event as the trigger: a May 14 vote in the Senate Banking Committee that advanced the bill 15-9, with two Democrats crossing the aisle.
Why the odds rose
The committee vote was the first concrete sign of bipartisan momentum. Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks joined every Republican on the panel, giving the bill a path out of committee. For Thorn, that changed the math. He's now betting the legislation can hold together through the full Senate, the House, and a presidential signature.
Not everyone is that confident. Kristin Smith of the Solana Policy Institute pegs the probability at 60%, while traders on Polymarket have pushed their number to 68% — up from 46% at the start of May but still below Thorn's estimate.
The legislative timeline
Thorn's projected calendar is tight but specific. Senate committee reconciliation should wrap by early June. Floor consideration follows in mid-June, with final Senate passage by the end of the month. July is set aside for House reconciliation. Presidential signature could come the week of August 3.
That timeline depends on one big variable: 60 votes. The CLARITY Act needs to overcome a filibuster, which means winning over at least a handful of Democrats in a chamber where Republicans hold 53 seats. Congress has just nine weeks of Senate floor time before the August 10 recess. After that, midterm election politics typically freeze substantive legislation.
The bipartisan compromise
The bill's advance didn't happen by accident. A compromise worked out by Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks resolved a dispute over whether stablecoin holders could earn interest. That deal removed a major risk to bipartisan support, clearing the way for the committee vote.
The stablecoin yield question had been a sticking point for months. Once it was settled, the bill gained the two Democratic votes it needed to move forward.
Remaining hurdles
Senator Elizabeth Warren remains a vocal opponent, arguing the CLARITY Act weakens anti-money-laundering rules and poses a risk to the economy. Her opposition alone won't stop the bill, but it signals the kind of resistance that could peel off votes on the floor.
Another friction point: ethics language restricting senior officials' digital asset holdings. Some offices are pushing for carve-outs, and those negotiations could slow reconciliation. If the ethics dispute isn't resolved before the August recess, Thorn's tight schedule unravels.
The bill still needs to clear the House and get signed into law. Thorn sees a path. Smith sees a narrower one. The Polymarket crowd sits somewhere in between. What matters now is whether the next nine weeks of floor time produce the 60 votes the CLARITY Act needs to survive a filibuster.
