Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, lowered his estimate of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 from 75% to 60% last week. The reason is not weakness in the bill, Thorn said, but a Senate calendar squeezed by procedural fights and an expiring surveillance law.
The Calendar Squeeze
The Clarity Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 bipartisan vote and landed on the floor calendar as Calendar No. 423 on June 1. But it hasn't gotten a scheduled floor vote before the August recess. The Senate lost floor days to a fight over the administration's anti-weaponization fund and a failed 47-52 procedural vote to renew Section 702 surveillance law, which expires June 12. That crunch leaves little room for crypto legislation.
The Vote Math
Getting the bill through the Senate will require roughly 60 votes for cloture. Thorn expects Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to vote no, meaning leadership must line up at least nine Democratic votes. Two open issues — ethics provisions and illicit finance rules — haven't seen a public deal, and they're tied to Democratic support. Without a deal, those nine votes aren't guaranteed.
Polymarket Bettors Turn Cautious
Polymarket bettors now see only a 54% chance of the Clarity Act passing in 2026, down 11% from the previous day. That's slightly more pessimistic than Thorn's 60% estimate, reflecting uncertainty over the Senate's ability to squeeze in a vote.
What Could Change the Odds
Thorn said a credible commitment from Majority Leader John Thune to schedule July floor time could push odds back up. Absent that, the path narrows to a riskier September attempt. Whether Thune offers that signal before the recess remains the open question.
