Grayscale Research published a report this week arguing that Hyperliquid (HYPE) may be undervalued relative to fintech equities. The firm used an earnings-per-token method, adapting the traditional earnings-per-share approach to crypto. But the token has dropped over 13% in the past month, diverging from large-cap crypto assets, as institutional holders unstaked millions.
The valuation case
Grayscale values HYPE by assuming Hyperliquid will earn roughly $1 billion in 2027, up about 20% from 2025. Growth is expected from recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income under Hyperliquid's Aligned Quote Asset framework. With a projected circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million tokens by the end of 2027, earnings per token land between $3.25 and $3.75. At the current price near $54, that gives a forward multiple of roughly 15x to 18x — cheap compared to many fintech stocks, Grayscale says.
The price reality
HYPE traded near $54 on Wednesday, about 29% below its all-time high set in mid-June. The token has lost more than 13% over the past month, a stark divergence from the broader large-cap market. Spot HYPE funds posted $8.6 million in outflows last week, the second straight weekly loss. Assets under management in those funds fell 18% from their July 10 peak. The selling pressure is real.
Institutional moves
Last week, Multicoin Capital and Paradigm unstaked roughly $291 million worth of HYPE. Multicoin sent a portion of its $120 million HYPE position to Coinbase, a move often associated with selling. The unstaking wave adds to the supply overhang and helps explain the price weakness. It's not just retail taking profits — big holders are moving tokens off the network.
Risks ahead
Grayscale's report acknowledges two key risks: weaker network revenue growth and faster token supply growth. If Hyperliquid's earnings don't hit the $1 billion target, or if the circulating supply expands more than expected, the valuation math gets less attractive. For now, the firm maintains HYPE is undervalued, but the near-term headwinds are hard to ignore. The market will be watching for a recovery in trading volumes and clearer details on stablecoin reserve income under the Aligned Quote Asset framework before sentiment shifts.
