Bitcoin may have already found its floor before the traditional post-halving cycle low, according to Grayscale's head of research. In remarks made this week, the research chief pointed to macro factors — particularly interest rate decisions — as the dominant force now steering the maturing asset's price. The view challenges the standard timeline many traders have relied on since Bitcoin's last halving in April 2024.
The Macro Shift
Grayscale's head of research argued that Bitcoin's price action is increasingly decoupling from its own historical cycle patterns. Instead, moves in the broader macro environment — especially the Federal Reserve's rate path — are taking the wheel. The statement suggests that the traditional four-year cycle, where Bitcoin typically bottoms 12-18 months after a halving, may no longer be the best guide.
What This Means for the Cycle
If the research chief is right, the current price level could represent an earlier-than-expected entry point for institutional investors. The comment comes as markets digest the latest round of rate signals from central banks. Grayscale, the largest digital asset manager, has a track record of influencing institutional sentiment. Whether the call proves accurate will depend on how macro conditions evolve in the second half of 2026.
