Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, after users placed bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early. Authorities cited gambling concerns as the reason for the block. The move adds to a growing list of countries clamping down on political prediction markets, which regulators increasingly view as a threat to electoral integrity or a form of unlicensed gambling.
The Prabowo bets
Polymarket users had been wagering on the likelihood of Prabowo stepping down before the end of his term. The contracts drew enough volume to attract the attention of Indonesian authorities. By the time the block went into effect this week, the market had been live for several days, with no official comment from the president's office on the bets themselves.
The platform didn't immediately say whether it would challenge the block or reroute traffic. Polymarket has faced similar hurdles in other jurisdictions where it operates without a local license.
Gambling vs. free speech
Indonesian regulators framed the block as a straightforward gambling enforcement action. Under local law, online betting platforms are illegal unless specifically licensed. Polymarket holds no such license in Indonesia. Critics argue the move is less about gambling and more about suppressing political discourse — prediction markets, they say, serve as a barometer of public sentiment. But the legal cover is clear: the country's internet censorship apparatus often hinges on vague gambling or morality clauses.
A global pattern
Polymarket isn't alone in drawing fire. The platform was already blocked in several other countries, and regulators in the U.S. and Europe have debated whether political prediction contracts constitute gambling or permissible futures. Indonesia's action signals that Southeast Asia is now part of that debate. The timing isn't great for Polymarket: the company has been expanding its user base and pushing into new markets, but each new block narrows its reach.
Whether other Southeast Asian governments follow Indonesia's lead remains an open question. For now, Indonesian users who want to bet on political outcomes will have to find another way — or log off.
