Indonesia has blocked access to the prediction market platform Polymarket, after betting contracts appeared to anticipate an early departure for President Prabowo Subianto. The move came swiftly, with internet service providers receiving orders to restrict the site. Authorities have not publicly detailed the legal basis for the block, but the trigger is clear: markets that effectively wager on a leader's political survival.
Betting on a President's Tenure
Polymarket allows users to place bets on the outcome of real-world events using cryptocurrency. One of the contracts that drew Indonesia's attention was a market asking whether Prabowo would leave office before a certain date. The mere existence of such a market, let alone its trading volume, appears to have crossed a red line for Jakarta. Prediction markets are not new, but this is the first time Indonesia has moved to block a major platform over political betting. The government likely sees these contracts as a threat to stability, or at least as an unwelcome commentary on the president's grip on power.
Indonesia's Stance on Prediction Markets
Indonesia has no explicit law banning prediction markets, but gambling is largely illegal in the country. The government can order internet blocks under broad electronic transaction laws. By targeting Polymarket, Jakarta is signaling that it won't tolerate platforms that let users speculate on political outcomes. The block affects all Indonesian IP addresses trying to reach Polymarket's website and app. It's a blunt instrument, but an effective one in a nation where the government controls much of the internet infrastructure.
Uncertainty for Polymarket Users
For Indonesian traders who had funds locked in Polymarket contracts, the block creates immediate problems. They can't access the site to settle bets or withdraw money. Some may try using VPNs, but the government has previously blocked VPN services during other crackdowns. Polymarket itself hasn't commented publicly on the block. The company is based in the United States and operates globally, but it has no physical presence in Indonesia. That makes it hard for Jakarta to pressure the platform directly, but blocking access is within its power.
The broader question is whether other governments will follow Indonesia's lead. Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the past year, drawing scrutiny from regulators in the U.S. and Europe. For now, Indonesian users are locked out, and it's not clear if Polymarket will try to fight the block or simply write off the market.
