Kalshi prediction market traders now estimate just a 31% probability that the CLARITY Act crypto legislation will become law by December 2026. That's down from 45% earlier this year, a notable slide in confidence as the year's end approaches.
From 45% to 31%
The drop of 14 percentage points reflects a shift in sentiment among traders on the regulated prediction platform. The CLARITY Act, a piece of crypto-focused legislation, has been a key talking point in Washington. But the odds have been trending downward since the start of 2026.
What the market says
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to bet on the outcome of real-world events. The current 31% figure means traders see a roughly one-in-three chance the bill makes it through Congress and gets signed into law by the end of the year. The earlier 45% reading suggested a near coin-flip. Now, the market is leaning against passage.
The clock is ticking
With December 2026 as the deadline, the window for legislative action is narrowing. The CLARITY Act would need to clear both the House and Senate and receive the president's signature. Whether the odds recover or continue to fall will depend on the next few months of congressional activity.
