Microsoft's Copilot AI has laid out a bullish case for Bitcoin, predicting the cryptocurrency could trade between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2026. The forecast, which sees a base case of $120,000 to $150,000, hinges on a persistent supply deficit and growing institutional adoption. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $63,800 after months of range-bound trading.
The supply squeeze
At the heart of Copilot's thesis is a simple math problem. Post-halving, the network issues roughly 450 BTC per day, while demand absorbs several times that amount. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to push assets under management past $100 billion, and corporate treasuries now hold more than 500,000 BTC — coins that rarely return to market. That imbalance, the model argues, should eventually force prices higher.
A choppy 2026 so far
Bitcoin's 2026 has been anything but smooth. It peaked near $126,000 in October, then fell to $81,000 in November. A capitulation in February took it to $60,000, and a spring recovery brought it back to $82,000. June saw a low of $58,000, and since then it's been stuck in a range, closing at $63,867. Key support sits at $63,000, $60,000, and $58,000, with resistance at $68,000, $72,000, and $80,000.
The bear case
Copilot isn't blind to the risks. Persistent inflation, restrictive monetary policy, and sudden regulatory shocks could cap upside near $90,000 to $100,000. That's still a gain from current levels, but far from the $200,000 extreme scenario. The model's extreme bullish case of $200,000 to $250,000 only plays out if the supply deficit persists and demand keeps accelerating.
Macro tailwinds
On the other side, the setup is improving. Regulatory clarity across the U.S., EU, and Asia is strengthening the bullish case. Rate cuts and fiat instability provide a macro tailwind, making Bitcoin's fixed supply more attractive. Copilot's base case of $120,000 to $150,000 assumes these factors hold.
The level to watch
For now, the market is flat. RSI reads 48.14 with a signal line at 49.93, indicating no clear direction. The first real test is $68,000. Breaking that would be the first evidence that the supply squeeze is finally reaching price. Until then, Bitcoin remains stuck in the range that has defined the past two months.
