Pseudonymous analyst PlanB is holding firm on his long-standing Bitcoin price prediction, saying the asset will hit between $500,000 and $1 million before the current halving cycle ends. With 639 days remaining in the cycle, the forecast rests on the stock-to-flow model and historical patterns from previous halvings. The call comes as Bitcoin trades well below that range, making the projection a bold one even by crypto standards.
The stock-to-flow model
PlanB's model treats Bitcoin like a scarce commodity — gold, but with a fixed supply schedule. Each halving cuts the new supply in half, and historically, that supply shock has preceded massive price rallies. The current cycle, which began after the 2024 halving, is now more than halfway through. PlanB argues that the model has held up across three previous cycles and sees no reason it will fail now.
639 days and counting
The clock is ticking. With just under two years left in this cycle, the implied annualized return from current levels would need to be steep to hit even the lower end of PlanB's target. The analyst has not specified an exact date for the peak, only that it will occur before the next halving — expected around early 2028. That gives the market a concrete deadline, but no guarantee.
Critics and believers
The stock-to-flow model has its share of skeptics. Critics point out that past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and that Bitcoin's growing market cap makes exponential gains harder to repeat. PlanB has acknowledged the criticism but continues to defend the model's track record. For now, the prediction remains a talking point — and a bet on whether history rhymes.
What comes next is simply time. The market will either prove PlanB right or wrong by the time the next halving rolls around. No one gets to skip the wait.
