Polymarket has teamed up with Nasdaq Private Market to launch real-time prediction markets focused on private companies. The partnership lets retail traders buy and sell contracts tied to valuations, IPO timings, and secondary share prices of startups that were previously off-limits to everyday investors.
What the data deal unlocks
Under the arrangement, Polymarket gets access to Nasdaq Private Market's transaction and pricing data. That information is used to settle the prediction contracts accurately. The deal opens exposure to roughly 1,600 global unicorns — privately held companies collectively valued at over $5 trillion. Until now, trading on those outcomes was reserved for institutions and accredited investors.
How the contracts work
Traders buy Yes or No contracts on specific milestones. Prices range from $0.01 to $0.99, reflecting crowd-sourced probabilities. Winning contracts settle at $1. That means a contract trading at $0.60 implies a 60% chance the event occurs. Participants can hedge or speculate on pre-IPO dynamics, while institutions can treat the crowd wisdom as a complementary signal.
Growing mainstream acceptance
Polymarket has already seen billions in weekly volume during major events. It secured partnerships with Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and the platform has been valued near $8–9 billion. The deal with Nasdaq Private Market signals a broader shift: prediction markets are increasingly treated as credible financial instruments rather than niche betting platforms.
Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan said: 'For the first time, anyone can engage with the outcomes driving value at the world’s most consequential private companies.'
More private company markets are set to roll out in the coming weeks. That means the initial batch of unicorns is just the beginning.
