A Wall Street Journal investigation has uncovered that roughly $1.9 million in bets displayed across more than 1,100 creator videos on Polymarket were not real. The phony wagers are part of a broader fake-engagement campaign at the world's largest prediction market, which is currently pushing for U.S. regulatory approval and institutional adoption.
What the investigation revealed
Journal reporters examined a sample of creator videos promoting Polymarket and found that the betting activity shown in the clips didn't match real trades on the platform. In some cases, the dollar amounts and odds were fabricated entirely. The $1.9 million figure represents the total value of those fake bets, spread across over a thousand videos.
Polymarket didn't dispute the findings. The company has not commented publicly on the investigation as of press time.
Why the fake bets matter
The revelation arrives at a delicate moment for Polymarket. The platform, which lets users wager on everything from election outcomes to sports results, has been trying to win over U.S. regulators and attract institutional investors. Fake engagement undermines the credibility the company needs to operate in a heavily regulated financial environment.
Regulators in the U.S. have historically been wary of prediction markets, and Polymarket settled charges with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 for offering unregistered swaps. The company agreed to stop serving U.S. users at the time, but it has since explored ways to re-enter the market legally.
The broader fake-engagement campaign
The Journal's investigation didn't stop at individual videos. Reporters identified a pattern of coordinated activity designed to make Polymarket look more popular and active than it actually is. The fake bets were posted by accounts that appeared to be genuine users but were part of a campaign to inflate engagement metrics.
It's unclear who orchestrated the campaign or whether Polymarket employees were involved. The company's terms of service prohibit fake accounts and fabricated activity, but enforcement appears to have been spotty.
Polymarket now faces a credibility test as it seeks the green light from U.S. regulators. The company has said it wants to operate as a licensed exchange, but the fake-bet scandal could slow that process. The CFTC has not announced any new action, but the Journal's findings may prompt closer scrutiny.
For now, Polymarket's users and potential investors are left wondering just how much of the platform's activity is real. The company hasn't said whether it will audit its creator videos or tighten verification for accounts posting betting content.
