Polymarket wants to bring prediction markets to Japan — legally — by 2030. The platform has tapped Mike Eidlin, head of Japan operations at crypto exchange Jupiter, to lead its lobbying efforts in Tokyo. Japan is currently on Polymarket's frontend-restricted list, meaning users there can't access the site.
The Japan target
Eidlin's job is to secure government approval. That's a multi-year slog. Polymarket has set 2030 as the goal. The company sees Japan as a major untapped market — but one with strict gambling and financial regulations. Prediction markets sit in a gray zone there, and Polymarket wants to bring them into the clear.
The state of global bans
Japan isn't alone. Polymarket is blocked or restricted in more than 30 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Australia, and Poland. Argentina issued a nationwide block in March 2024. The company has spent years navigating bans. Its biggest win came in September 2025, when it regained clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission after roughly three years of being barred from the American market.
Why Japan now
Polymarket's push into Japan comes as other jurisdictions tighten. The U.S. is open again, but Europe remains patchy. Japan is a large, regulated financial market with clear rules — if you can get the right license. That's the appeal. Eidlin isn't starting from zero: he already runs Jupiter's Japan operation, so he knows the regulatory landscape and the key players.
The path ahead
Getting approved by 2030 gives Polymarket four years. The lobbying effort will face questions from Japan's Financial Services Agency and likely from lawmakers worried about gambling-like products. Polymarket will have to argue that prediction markets are a legitimate information tool, not a casino. Eidlin will need to build bridges, fast. There's no public timeline for the first formal meeting with regulators, but the work has started.
