Ran Neuner warned this week that Bitcoin's price chart is flashing a pattern similar to the 2022 bear flag, potentially sending BTC down to $40,000-$50,000. The trader pointed to Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and its STRC preferred-stock instrument as the linchpin. Neuner argued that if STRC spends fewer days trading near its $100 par value, the market may discount the absence of its largest recurring buyer — and Bitcoin could feel the pain.
The STRC concern
In May, STRC traded at $100 only on the 11th, with the ex-dividend date on the 15th. That gave Strategy just four days to raise capital through the instrument. In previous months, STRC had pegged at $100 earlier — for instance, on the 25th of the prior month. Neuner's worry is mechanical: fewer days near par means less capital raised, which could translate into less buying pressure from Strategy. His argument doesn't allege wrongdoing; it's a pure trading-behavior concern.
Macro risks pile on
Neuner also cited broader macro risks. Rising Treasury yields, sticky inflation, oil prices, and potential large IPOs — SpaceX and OpenAI are in the pipeline — could drain liquidity from risk assets. That's a headwind for crypto even before the STRC issue factors in.
Pushback from Melker
Scott Melker pushed back on the idea that STRC would collapse without a major credit event. He noted the instrument is linked to Strategy and backed by its Bitcoin holdings. Melker's counterpoint: the preferred stock isn't likely to implode overnight, so the bear flag analogy may be overblown. The disagreement highlights how much attention is now on Strategy's capital-raising mechanics.
Bitcoin was at $77,033 when Neuner made his call. The next STRC trading window — likely in June — will be closely watched. If the stock fails to trade at $100 for multiple days, Neuner's scenario could start to play out. For now, it's a mechanical question with macro tail risks added on.
