XLM, the native token of the Stellar network, is trading near $0.160 on Thursday, below all three major moving averages. The 50-day EMA sits at $0.176, the 100-day at $0.180, and the 200-day at $0.190 — a clear sign the trend has turned bearish. With the RSI at 33, the token is close to oversold territory, but that hasn't stopped sellers from pressing.
Below the moving averages
The immediate resistance zone is $0.176-$0.180, where the 50-day EMA meets horizontal resistance at $0.177. A break above that would face the 200-day EMA at $0.190. Until then, the path of least resistance is down. The MACD is negative, confirming the bearish momentum. The token has been trading below these levels for a while, and Thursday's action is a continuation of that trend.
Sellers in control
CryptoQuant data shows selling-side dominance in both spot and futures markets. Large whale orders are adding uncertainty, and the long-to-short ratio sits at 0.92, meaning more traders are short than long. That's a bearish tilt, though not extreme. The selling pressure is broad-based, not just one exchange or one venue. It's the kind of setup that can keep a downtrend going even when the RSI suggests the market is oversold.
A flicker of bullish demand
One counter-signal: the funding rate has climbed to 0.0092%, positive, indicating some bullish demand in perpetual futures. It's not a big number, but it suggests a few traders are willing to pay to hold longs. That's a thin reed, though, given the broader selling pressure. The positive funding rate is the only bullish data point in the mix right now, and it's not enough to shift the overall picture.
Where the next floor is
The next meaningful support is at $0.142. That's the level traders are watching. XRP's slight bullish positioning offers limited recovery hope for XLM, but the two tokens often move together, so a bounce in XRP could help. For now, the market is waiting to see if XLM can hold $0.142. A close below that would open the door to further losses, while a push back above $0.176 would signal a potential reversal. Neither looks imminent.
